Personal vs. Societal Risk

(Not only) Germany is lifting some of the Corona restrictions. Many seem to understand this relaxing of constraints as an indication that the virus is no longer that dangerous. This reading of the situation is dangerously wrong.  

An immediate result is that one can already see many, especially younger people, congregating in groups in public areas. Such groupings, very quickly, lose the self-discipline that is required to maintain the distance, that is necessary to reduce the risk of infection.

The truth is that the virus, for those who become infected, has not lost any of its lethal potential. The only, albeit very significant, difference is that our health systems are now better prepared than they were on day one. Politicians, who now are less worried about the likelihood of overfilled hospitals turning off ventilators to the over 70s, and especially of photos of body bags overfilling the morgues, are therefore yielding to public and business pressures to restart the economy.

As it seems that the virus is more likely to kill the old and frail, and as, as I predicted more than a month ago, solidarity has not lasted, and as:

1. The regulatory masks do not protect their wearers. Their purpose is to prevent us from infecting others.

2. Masks are compulsory only in shops and in public transport. Indeed, very few people can be seen wearing masks outside the required areas.

3. The drive to get people to constantly and thoroughly wash their hands and disinfect surfaces is unlikely to be adhered to by the majority of the population.    

older people have the choice between:

a. Staying home, keeping themselves as isolated as possible, until a vaccine is found. This was Boris Johnson’s original message to the British public: business as usual, but over 70s should stay at home for the coming months.

b. To avoid locking themselves up, and as they cannot expect general respectful and kind consideration – resort to better defence mechanisms than the simple mask. The visor mask, which I showed on this blog, some weeks ago, would be my current choice. The mask has an added advantage that it makes the to-be-avoided inadvertent touching of one’s face rather difficult. Mine is home-made, but visor masks  are also cheap to buy.  

Wearing the visor mask does not take care of virus carrying surfaces – a subject about which no conclusive information is as yet to be had. So, hand washing and sanitising must be strictly adhered to, regardless of what the majority of the population does.